Thursday, 30 May 2019

Warrington House Prices Up 4.2% in a Year What does that mean for local Landlords and Homeowners?





The balancing act of being a Warrington Buy To Let landlord is something many do well at. Talking to numerous Warrington landlords, they are very aware of their tenants’ capability to pay the rent and their own need to raise rents on their rental properties.  Despite the ‘perceived ‘dark clouds of Brexit, evidence suggests many landlords feel more confident than they were in the Summer and Autumn of 2018 about aiming to push rents higher on their Warrington Buy To Let properties.

Looking at the data for the last 7 years, this shows that throughout the Summer months, the rents new tenants have had to pay on move in have increased at a higher rate than during the colder months of Winter.  This is because the Summer months are normally a time when renters like to move, meaning demand increases for rental properties yet supply remains pretty ridged.

Yet the Winter stats buck that trend and this is great news.

Rents in Warrington on average for new tenants moving in have risen 0.7% for the month, taking overall annual Warrington rents 2.9% higher for the year

However, several Warrington landlords have expressed their apprehension about a slowing of the housing market in Warrington and I believe, based on this new evidence, they may be overstated.  Before we get the bubbly out though, the other part of investing in property is what is happening to capital values (which will also be of interest to all the homeowners in Warrington as well as the Warrington Buy To let landlords).   I believe the Warrington property market has been trying to find some form of balance since the New Year.   According to the Land Registry….

Property Values in Warrington are 4.2% higher than they were 12 months ago

Yet, these figures reflect the sales of Warrington properties that took place in the late Autumn of 2018 and now are only exchanging and completing during the Winter / early Spring months of this year.

The reality is the number of properties that are on the market in Warrington today has risen by 2% since the Autumn


and that will have a dampening effect on the property market.  As tenants have had less choice, buyers now have more choice .. and that will temper Warrington property prices as we head into the middle of 2019.

Be you a Warrington landlord or Warrington homeowner, if you are preparing to sell your Warrington property in 2019, it’s important, especially with the rise in the number of properties on the market, that you are pricing your property realistically when you bring it to the market.  With the likes of Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket on everybody’s mobile phones and laptops, buyers have access to every property on the market and they will compare and contrast your home with other properties like yours – and will more than likely dismiss your property rather than view it.

To all the Warrington homeowners that aren’t planning to sell though – this talk of price changes is only on paper profit or loss.  To those that are moving .. most people that sell, are buyers as well, so as you might not get as much for yours, the one you will want to buy won’t be as much.  Look at the deal as a whole, the difference between what you sell yours for and what you buy at.  Finally, all the Warrington landlords – keep your eye’s peeled – I have a feeling there may be some decent Warrington buy to let deals to be had in the coming months.


If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.


Email me on manoj@hamletwarrington.co.uk or call on 01925 235338. If you are in the area, feel free to pop into the office – we are based on G5, Warrington Business Park, Long Lane, WA2 8TX. There is plenty of free parking and the kettle is always on.


Friday, 17 May 2019

Unemployment - the Secret Driver of the Warrington Property Market?



If you have been reading my articles on the Warrington property market recently, you will see that in the three years since the referendum of the ‘B’ word (that word is banned in our household), we have proved beyond doubt that it (whose name shall remain nameless) has had no effect on the Warrington property market (or the UK as a whole).
So one might ask, what does affect the property market locally? Well many things on the demand side include wages, job security, interest rates, availability of mortgages, confidence in the economy, inflation, speculative demand ... the list goes on. Yet as my blog readers will note, I like to delve deeper into the numbers and I have found an interesting correlation between unemployment and the number of properties sold (i.e. transactions).
Why transaction levels and not house prices? Well just looking at Warrington house prices as a bellwether has flaws. Many property market commentators and economists believe transaction numbers (the number of properties sold) give a more accurate and candid indicator of the health of the property market than just house values alone. The reason is twofold. First most people when they sell also buy, so if property values have dropped by 10% or risen by 10% on the one you are selling, it would have done the same on the one you are buying - meaning to judge the health of a property market is very one dimensional. Secondly, the act of moving is very much a human thing. Property habitually conveys a robust emotional connection with homeowners - a connection that few would attribute to their other investments like their savings or stock market investments. Moving home could be described as a human enterprise, moving from one chapter of one’s life to another. When people move home, it shows they are moving forward in their lives and so this gives a great indicator of the health of the property market.

Looking at Warrington’s figures on the graph, you can see an inverse relationship between unemployment and housing transaction levels.
 Property transactions in Warrington dropped by 60.08%, whilst unemployment in Warrington rose by 69.75% during the 2007 to 2009 Global Financial Crash


There is clearly a relationship between conditions in the Warrington job market and the number of people who move home ... interesting don’t you think?
Now I am not saying unemployment is the only factor influencing the Warrington property - but it has to be said there is a link.

As a country (and indeed here in Warrington) over the last 40 years, we have seen a shift in the outlook over the purpose of housing and the development of the religion of following house prices (and I appreciate the irony of me writing these articles on Warrington - feeding that habit!) Yet, when did owning a home turn from buying a roof over your head to an out and out investment vehicle? I do wish people would stop fretting about their intrinsic value being associated with their Warrington home. Now of course, I am not dismissing the current levels of Warrington house prices - we just have to take into consideration other metrics alongside them when judging the health of the property market locally.

One final thought, looking on a broader scale in the UK, those towns and cities whose property markets bounced back after the Global Financial Crash had high levels of employment and low unemployment whilst places with high unemployment and relatively low employment have, on the other hand, typically underperformed. 
So the next time you are considering a house move or buying a buy to let property in Warrington ... don’t make your judgement on house price growth alone.


If you are looking for an agent that is well established, professional and communicative, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property.

Email me on manoj@hamletwarrington.co.uk or call on 01925 235338. If you are in the area, feel free to pop into the office – we are based on G5, Warrington Business Park, Long Lane, WA2 8TX. There is plenty of free parking and the kettle is always on.
Don't forget to visit the links below to view back dated deals and Warrington Property News.