Thursday, 24 March 2016

Doom and Gloom for Warrington Property Market in 2016?




One of my landlords rang me last week from Grappenhall Heys, after he had spoken to a friend of his. Over Christmas, they were discussing the Warrington property market and neither of them could make their mind up if it was time to either sell or buy property. If you read the newspapers and the landlord forums on the internet, there is a good slice of doom and gloom, especially with changes in the taxation towards landlords, new legislation on checking tenants and the general uncertainty in the world economic situation.

Trends

I would admit, there are certain landlords in Warrington who have over exposed themselves in the last few years with high percentage loan to value mortgages. Those mortgages, with their current (yet artificially low) interest rates, will start to suffer, as their modest monthly positive cash flow/profit, i.e. income (rent) less costs (mortgage, fees, tax), will become negative when the tax and mortgage rates rise throughout 2017 and beyond.

It appears to me these landlords seem to have treated the Warrington Buy to Let market as a sure bet and have not approached this as a business. As a result, they will suffer - as they thought "Buy a house - rent it out so it covers the mortgage and make a few quid on top".  These are the people who will be thinking twice. I see opportunity everywhere and won't be stopping, I’m here to stay. It’s going to be an exciting new year.

Gone are the days when you could buy any old house in Warrington and it would make money.  Yes, in the past, anything in Warrington that had four walls and a roof would make you money because since WW2, property prices doubled every seven years…  it was like printing money – but not anymore.

What is changing now?

Since January 1997, the average price paid for a Warrington flat/apartment has risen from £35,154 to today’s current average of £128,416 in the town, an impressive rise of 265% and terraced/town house have risen in the same time frame, from £55,454 to £199,361, an even better rise of above 300%.



However, look back to 2005, and in that year, the average flat was selling for £115,844, meaning our Warrington landlord would have seen a modest rise of 11% and the terraced owner would have seen an increase of 32%, as they were selling for on average £150,911... Not bad, until you consider inflation.

The impact of inflation

Since 2005, then inflation, i.e. the cost of living, has increased by 33.4%. That means to retain its value, Warrington terraced property bought for £150,911 in 2005 needs to be worth £201,267 today. Therefore, our landlord has seen the ‘real’ value of his property drop slightly by 1.4% (i.e. 32% less 33.4% inflation).

The reality is, since around 2004/2005 we haven’t seen anything like the capital growth in property we have seen in the past and it’s not predicted to grow at the rates it has previously done either. So it is high time anyone considering investing in property stopped believing the hype and did some serious research using independent investment expertise.

You can still make money by buying the right Warrington property at the right price and finding the right tenant. However, remember, investing in Warrington property is not only about capital growth, but also about the yield (the return from the rent). It’s also about having a balanced property portfolio that will match what you want from your investment – and what is a ‘balanced property portfolio’? Well we discuss such matters on the Warrington Property Blog ... if you haven’t been, then it might be worth a few minutes of your time? 



If you are a landlord or thinking of becoming one for the first time, and you want to read more articles like this about the Warrington Property Market together with regular postings on what I consider the best buy to let deals in Warrington, out of the many of properties on the market, irrespective of which agent is selling it, then feel free to get in touch! email me on manoj@hamletwarrington.co.uk If you are in the area feel free to pop into the office we are based on 6 Bankside, Crosfield St, WA1 1UP plenty of free parking and the kettle is always on.


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